A new book by a British economist is raising concerns that the country’s debt burden is rising again.
The new book, Debt: A New History of Our Debt, argues that the debt burden in the UK has not kept pace with economic growth and that there are concerns about the country becoming “bumpy” in the future.
“I believe we are back to where we were in the 1980s, and it is likely to get worse,” said Jonathan Gartrell, a research fellow at the British Academy of Political and Social Sciences.
In his book, Gartrels new book argues that in the coming decades, the UK will face the “biggest economic and financial crisis since the Second World War”.
He said the government is not making the right decisions in the interest of the public.
“The chancellor is spending more than £1bn a week on a programme of austerity, while the UK’s public finances are in freefall.
“The economic recovery has been fragile and the government has yet to address the issues of inequality and social injustice, and to address inequality and inequality within our society.
“It is the economy that is at risk.
The government has promised a major investment programme but it is unclear whether the money will be put to better use than what the government spent.”
Gartrell’s research, based on the UK debt statistics from the Office for National Statistics (ONS), is based on a study from the British National Debt Database, which was updated in 2016.
Gartrel said that the ONS had failed to take into account the impact of the economic crisis.
When the UK was in recession in the 1990s, the country had to borrow £1.4 trillion from the public purse to keep up with its economic growth.
Today, the ONSL data shows that the UK spends just £1 billion a week.
“When I looked at the ONSN data, I thought it was really, really poor,” he said.
He said it is not just the ONSS figures which have been flawed, but the government data too.
“If you have data that is unreliable and you have it being presented as a consistent picture of the UK, you don’t have the confidence to invest in the infrastructure of your economy.”
Greta Van Der Linden, chief economist at the Centre for Economics and Business Research, said it was a serious concern.
“It raises a number of issues,” she said.
“One is the lack of confidence in the ONs debt statistics.
And secondly, the way that the statistics are being used by the government.”
Van Der Lindens research suggests that the increase in debt is not due to a collapse in the value of the pound.
She said the increase was caused by the UK government using a new set of accounting rules which are not consistent with the ONSI data.
Van Der Lindsey said that this led to the UK taking on debt more quickly than other countries.
“For example, Greece borrowed at 1 per cent interest and Portugal has a debt of 10 per cent.
This means the UK is taking on more debt than other EU countries,” she explained.
But she said the issue of debt had not been addressed properly by the new government.
If the government does not address the problem, she said it would become more difficult for the UK to maintain its growth rate.
However, Van Der Lindsey also warned that the government needs to consider its own debt as a major risk in the years to come.
“We need to be careful that the new system does not put us in a situation where we have a large amount of debt and then there is no future growth,” she added.
A recent report by the British Chambers of Commerce warned that there was a risk of the government defaulting on its debts.
“Debt defaults could increase if the economy remains weak or if there are adverse economic shocks to the country,” it said.
But Gartriels research has not convinced her that the economy is stable enough to absorb such a debt.
With growth forecast to remain weak, the economy could have a hard time absorbing such a large debt, he said, adding that there were other issues which could prevent a debt default.
“There is a risk that a country which has a large current account deficit and which is struggling to make ends meet, which is a large debtor country, could become a defaulting country,” Gartruff said.